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Usually, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year award adheres to a simple script. It often functions as a kind of mea culpa. Sorry we got wrong your team in our pre-campaign projections.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut line: the skipper who oversaw the largest improvement wins the prize. In practice, it creates an annual debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually honoring superior coaching or merely the biggest upset.

Yet this year's race is fundamentally different. The group of contenders is exceptionally deep. It has been the season of comebacks. The league has been chaotic, with recent conference champions declining and recent underperformers rising collectively. Under an ordinary season, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the overwhelming favorite. Yet in such a chaotic and thrilling season, he's competing with five other outstanding candidates.

This is how the projected vote could shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year selectors adore QBs. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you transform a franchise QB, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson not only fixed Caleb Williams; he's freed him. In the right system, Williams has been given the opportunity to display his rare ability. Since midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's prolonged performance. With Johnson, Williams has become more confident, far less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the gameplan rather than improvising. It is an attack designed solely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a consistent helping of play-action passes and a imaginative passing attack that frees wide-open receivers all over the field. The QB has taken advantage. And when openings weren't there, he's been able to spin magic from nothing.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a defined offensive vision. Virtually each bet – overhauling the trenches, utilizing the pass-catchers, transforming the QB into a rhythm passer – has paid off. This is rare for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer yet for a leader who entered the building with the kind of expectations he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after name on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no sure things. Somehow, Johnson has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme genius but the kind of leader that can inject fresh energy into an organization.

During a ordinary year, Johnson would be the clear-cut choice. Yet this isn't a typical year!

Where his case runs slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears currently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are living on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously fickle. Defensive minds can focus on ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is legitimate. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defense's work. With a few breaks of the ball, the team would be several wins worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is in place for long-term winning. However Johnson falls short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar situation to Johnson. He's a fellow first-time leader who has orchestrated a rapid resurgence. During the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest all-around ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the league in EPA per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has mastered the intangibles aspects, which wasn't a given after his early press conference appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed themselves with the perfect coaching cocktail of youth and veteran savvy, he trusted newbies. From the head coach on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That kind of approach is intriguing in theory, but frequently fails in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a new job on the fly. Yet he has managed to bring everyone and everything into sync.

Following an early hot beginning, there was a possibility that the season would go off the track. A midseason setback caused the Jags stumbling again. That's usually when coaches panic and change too much. He did not. Instead, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped pursuing home-run plays and started seeking sustainable ones. The coach recentered the attack around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are clear. The Jags have won multiple games in a row and will be the conference's number three playoff seed. He receives the slightest knock in the standings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3

Every Coach of the Year argument has a defining moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB choice.

Moving on from a incumbent, signing a new signal-caller and partnering him with an new play-caller could have ended the season in October. Instead, it shaped it. Through the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has cooled off after that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, putting him just one spot ahead of other QBs.

Still