A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that divided the country and caused disorder, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the political, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Many are for or against the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in academia but hardly any elected officials or activists are willing to participate with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unification or the existing arrangement. Both writes two pieces that aim for impartiality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and social figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, levies, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented O’Toole. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters claim they support unity but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent official who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified perspectives, he said. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will in the end not succeed but all factions has got something to learn from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the discussion, urged the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
