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New Yorkers will learn the identity of their next mayor this election day, in a race that will decide who governs and defends the country's largest city at a moment when Donald Trump has threatened to deploy military troops to the urban center.

Against that backdrop, New York has witnessed a mayoral election that has pitted two distinctly opposing Democrats against each other. The contest has become an increasingly bitter face-off, laced with alleged racism and Islamophobia, but it is the ideological divide between the two main candidates that could have significant consequences for how the party performs in next year's midterm elections.

The Rising Progressive

On the left side is Zohran Mamdani, the 34-year-old progressive candidate whose meteoric rise and people-powered movement has brought global notice. Representing the old guard is the former governor, the former New York governor now campaigning independently – and benefiting from the backing of ultra-rich donors and corporations.

As the election approaches, it is the progressive, the former longshot who defeated Cuomo in the party primary who is firmly installed as the frontrunner. Mamdani, who has run on a platform of affordability and promised to freeze rent for about 2 million city residents, has led Cuomo by double-digits in every poll taken in October, and it is very much the younger man's race to lose.

A Bitter Contest

However, the former governor, who resigned as the state's leader in 2021 amid allegations of misconduct, has stated clearly he will battle to the end, and not necessarily in an fair fashion. He has criticized his opponent's objectives as unachievable, and in recent days chuckled along as a broadcaster made Islamophobic remarks about Mamdani, who is a Muslim. Two weeks ago, Cuomo was widely condemned as bigoted after sharing an artificial intelligence video that included a series of racist stereotypes and showed his opponent releasing a convicts.

This represents a particularly ugly conclusion to an race that could be key to the direction that the party, struggling in its reaction to the former president's authoritarian grabs, adopts in the coming years.

National Implications

If the progressive secures a clear victory, the party establishment who have refused to endorse his campaign will be forced to reckon with a platform that has appealed to Americans' frustration at inequality, inflation and the political elite. It would be hard for the Senate leader and the House leader not to adopt at least some of the candidate's progressive proposals about economic justice, given the fresh face has generated an enthusiasm within the Democratic ranks perhaps not seen since Bernie Sanders ran for president in 2016.

Conversely, should Cuomo, who had been predicted to win easily in the June primary, complete a remarkable comeback win, it could reinforce the party's current model of considered, lackluster opposition – a tactic that has infuriated grassroots members. A New York defeat of Mamdani's optimistic platform could persuade Schumer and Jeffries that the wisest course is to stick to the political center – even as surveys show the present version of the party is widely disliked nationwide.

Campaign Energy

Residents of New York appear to favor the progressive agenda. Polls show that Mamdani supporters are far more enthusiastic about their choice than Cuomo backers, something that has been evident throughout the campaign. The candidate's snappy videos on digital platforms, his optimistic vision for the city and his readiness to actually get out and meet people in the city has drawn an force of more than 50,000 volunteers, many of them young or new participants.

Personal Attacks

However, the former governor, 67, isn't giving up. And with the risks stacked against him, the former governor has turned to negative campaigning in the final days.

After spending months throwing basically everything at Mamdani to see what might stick, Cuomo has narrowed his focus on attacking the candidate personally. He has called his rival, who was born in Uganda to Indian parents, an "radical", and popped up on conservative media for an discussion with a rightwing host, where the candidate asserted New York “will not survive” Mamdani as mayor. It reached a nadir last week, when the former governor laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said Mamdani would “cheer” another 9/11-style incident.

Campaign Dynamics

This strategy echoes much of what the former president, who has deployed the national guard to the capital and warned to take similar action to NYC, has said about Mamdani, and maybe that is expected. A set of wealthy residents, including some who donated to the Republican in the 2024 election, have pumped millions into trying to elect Cuomo elected, as other influential figures have pressured Curtis Sliwa to withdraw from the contest.

Political Histories

As far as the Cuomo camp, and his billionaire supporters, are worried, it should never have come to this point. When Mamdani, one of 150 state legislators, launched his campaign for mayor in last year, not many had heard of him, and in truth, barely anyone even noticed.

Cuomo, by comparison, eased his way into the race in March 2025 and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the political heavyweight who apparently held all the advantages. The classic political insider, he had wed a political dynasty member and worked in a Democratic presidency. He assumed office as New York governor in 2011, seventeen years after his parent, the former governor, stepped down from the same position.

The progressive, who was voted in to the state legislature in recently, does not have the same political heritage. But his commitment to providing no-cost transit and free childcare – along with the rent control promise – present a brighter outlook of the city's direction than Cuomo’s pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his promise to hire more police officers.

Recent Challenges

Nevertheless, the candidate has faced some challenges in recent days, after footage emerged appearing to show him suggesting the New York police department and the Israel Defense Forces were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the police is on your neck, it’s been influenced by the Israeli military,” the candidate said in the recording, recorded at a DSA convention in recent years. The progressive, a vocal opponent of Israel who has said the country is committing genocide in Gaza, suggested he was criticizing cooperative programs between the city police and Israeli forces.

Powerful Moment

As the race closes, the candidate seems to have gained sympathy and support, however, for his response to his opponent's increasing rhetoric.

The progressive addressed Cuomo’s 9/11 remarks in an heartfelt recording. In it, the candidate remembered how, when he first ran for state assembly, a Muslim uncle suggested to him that he did not have to tell people about his Muslim faith. It was a lesson, Mamdani said, that many local Muslims had been taught “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the margins of our city. That it is in those shadows alone where followers of Islam could express their true selves, and that if we were to emerge from those seclusion, then it is in those shadows that we must set aside our faith.”

Addressing the behavior of his opponents, who has alleged Mamd